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What do the Philadelphia Flyers have in Jay O’Brien?

The Philadelphia Flyers went a bit off the board with the 19th overall pick Jay O’Brien. Drafting a player who primarily played high school hockey in his draft year comes with its own set of risks. Were his numbers inflated due to the level of competition or was it due to his true talent level? Why didn’t he opt for the USHL to play against tougher competition? These answers and more will be covered in detail later on.

Hints of Game-Breaking Potential?

O’Brien performed very well in the USA Hockey All-American Prospects Game. Two plays, in particular, stand out which hint at potential game-breaking talent:

The first clip was quite eye-opening. The clip shows O’Brien waiting for Quinn Hughes to commit to him. That slight hesitation forces Hughes to set his feet, thereby opening up an outside route to the goal. O’Brien did not score on the play.

However, the snippet illustrates O’Brien’s cerebral style of play (i.e. hockey IQ). Forcing a defender to make the first movement opens things up elsewhere and O’Brien nearly capitalizes on the opportunity.

The second clip highlights O’Brien’s finishing ability. He quickly recognizes that there is an open lane for him to cut across the slot and get a shot off. Lots of players would’ve opted to try to go around or through the defender on the left-hand side.

Instead, O’Brien knows he doesn’t have much time or space so he gravitates to the soft ice. Once again, we see O’Brien wait out an opposing player (in this case the goalie) before deciding to elevate the puck. The goalie is on the verge of going down into the butterfly so O’Brien decides to shoot high. The puck finds itself into the goal as a result of an accurately placed wrister. Now, let’s delve into some plays from his high school games:

O’Brien loses control of the puck off of the faceoff. Fortunately for him, the defender bobbles the puck and leaves it up for grabs. O’Brien pounces on it, drives to the goal and rips it top shelf. O’Brien’s first step quickness/initial acceleration is on full display here. It takes him very little time to get from the neutral zone to below the dots on the right circle.

Speed is now the name of the game in the NHL and first-step quickness is paramount in order to be a truly effective contributor. O’Brien possesses this trait in spades.

O’Brien surveys the ice and makes a few important decisions in the above clip. First, he brings the puck into the offensive zone with possession. Controlled entries have been shown to lead to more positive outcomes in the offensive zone than dumping the puck in. Second, he sees his teammate enter the zone behind him.

O’Brien’s next steps are crucial. He carries the puck towards the middle of the ice in order to draw defenders towards him. In doing so, he creates space for his teammate coming up behind him on the left side.

The drop pass caps off a series of smart and efficient plays from O’Brien. It is important to note that this play probably has a high degree of difficulty at the NHL level (depending on the situation of course). Many NHL forwards and defensemen would instinctively pounce on that pass.

Looking to be creative with the puck on an entry is still a good thing though. Calculated risk-taking is preferred to safe, risk-averse hockey in my estimation.

Here, O’Brien finds himself in the right place at the right time. A key aspect of hockey IQ is knowing the right place to be on the ice at any given time. While on the forecheck, he realized his opponent was trying to break the puck out.

O’Brien wrestles the puck away, stickhandles to the right of the crease, and fires a pass to his teammate for the easy tap-in. A clear pattern emerges when watching O’Brien play: he’ll wait for you to make a move before making you look foolish.

High School Production

O’Brien’s production at the high school level (80 points in 30 games) had him atop 2018 drafted forwards rankings for Involvement% and Goal Involvement%. These rankings are based on the 81 drafted forwards in Will Scouch’s prospect data sheet. For the uninitiated, Involvement% refers to a player’s points per game divided by his team’s goals per game.

Goal Involvement% alludes to a players goals per game divided by his team’s goals per game. Both measure how involved a player is in his team’s offensive output. Involvement% and Goal Involvement% were formulated by Will Scouch.

NHLeScore concerns a players age and league adjusted NHLe score. NHLeScore is also formulated by Will Scouch. It would make sense that O’Brien doesn’t grade out well here due to the league that he played in. NHLe tends to punish players who play in leagues that aren’t professional leagues, or European/American/Canadian junior leagues.

Emmanuel Perry (of Corsica Hockey fame) recently released a prospect ranking model. Based on Perry’s Wins Above Replacement metric, he created Projected Wins Above Replacement Per 82 Games stat for prospects. As you can see, O’Brien performed very well according to this metric.

Quality of competition may have booster his numbers there in particular. 96 drafted forwards were included in Perry’s data set. To my mind, O’Brien’s high school production was a result of his true talent level and not a by-product of the competition that he faced.

USNTDP/USHL Production

O’Brien’s 2 points in 7 games played as a member of the U18 men’s development program doesn’t seem all that great on the surface. As an injury call-up, he wasn’t placed with the top of the lineup guys all too often. That “could” excuse his relatively pedestrian production at this level.

There’s always a degree of adjustment that a player has to make when making the leap to play tougher competition. Adjusting to the level of competition, and his regular linemates had an impact on O’Brien’s USNTDP production. One wonders what O’Brien’s offensive production could have been at this level had he played in more than 7 games.  As for his USHL production (o points in 1 game), its tough to take much information out of 1 game.

What do the experts say?

HockeyProspect Blackbook: “O’Brien has excellent anticipation both with and without the puck, this allows him to find soft ice and get into position before receiving passes at a consistent rate. His decision making is also very good due to his ability to process information on the ice rapidly, this allows him to create and be apart of give-and-go sequences with a high degree of execution. His hockey sense is also notable in the defensive end where he’s good at intercepting pass attempts, he backchecks aggressively when needed and is willing to support his defenseman when the play calls for it on most sequences.”

McKeen’s Draft Guide: “Considering the wildly varying levels of the players he was often playing with and against, different parts of his game would shine on different nights. Sometimes, you could see an above average first few steps, allowing him to take off in a flash. Other times, he would impress with his blistering shot, especially his accurate wrister.”

The Draft Analyst: “Matching elite speed with a ferocious appetite for success usually nets good results, so it didn’t come as a surprise that O’Brien was named the top high school player in New England. He’s a tough competitor who doesn’t quit on a play regardless of the score or how much time remains on the clock.”

Why didn’t he play exclusively in the USHL?

The answer is pretty simple: he wanted to play prep hockey. His high school was close to home and he wanted to put on some muscle and work on his skating without having to deal with the unpredictable schedule and constant bus rides that make up a USHL season.

The Next Challenge

O’Brien will next suit up for Providence College. It will be interesting to monitor his progress and see how he adjusts to playing against men for the first time. More and more NHL draftees are taking the college route for their continued development. O’Brien will be joining fellow flyers forward prospect Joel Farabee in the same collegiate conference (Hockey East).

Data courtesy of: Will Scouch & Emmanuel Perry