Arizona found themselves qualifying for the NHL’s wildcard round and will face off against the Nashville Predators. These two teams are on about the same level, so realistically the series could go either way. From an Arizona perspective, it’s their series to lose.
Arizona has shown this season that they can beat anyone on any day, however, they also have a history of playing down to their competition. Most logical thing to do is compare the major aspects of both teams to see which of these two has the advantage.
I see both teams as essentially equal in terms of defensive cores and overall play, so I’ll compare both captains as they’re both offensive minded defenseman. Starting off with Predators captain Roman Josi. Josi can be best summarized as what Coyotes fans think Ekman-Larsson is.
The 30-year-old Josi has had an upward trend in goals, assists and points for four consecutive seasons. He has consistently brought solid defensive play, as well as ridiculously consistent scoring. At a glance, he also shows defensive leadership of his line, as well as offensive.
His +/- supports this as he recorded a ridiculous +20 or higher in two of his last four seasons, as well as a positive +/- in all of his previous four seasons. As for Ekman-Larsson, ever since recording back-to-back 20+ goal seasons, he has had four consecutive seasons, scoring less than 15 goals and fewer than 45 points. At a glance, his offensive numbers are still good, but his defensive ability has gone downhill significantly.
Ask any honest critic who has been watching this team for, at least, the past two+ seasons, his defensive ability has gone down significantly. He cannot play high quality defense anywhere near a consistent level, though he does have flashes of brilliance. As for his defensive leadership, not only does it fail the eye test while watching him play, but he has recorded a negative +/- in the last seven consecutive seasons, including four -16 or worse.
Josi is not only a better on-ice leader, but is better defensively and offensively-productive. If we’re talking leadership, Nashville has the edge going into this series.
Next thing to compare would be the offense of both teams. Talking strictly forwards both teams have two that recorded forty or more points, as well as having one lone twenty goal scorer. Comparing the two twenty goal scorers we have Filip Forsberg who recorded twenty-one goals and twenty-seven assists for forty-eight points in sixty-three games, whereas Conor Garland scored twenty-two goals and seventeen assists for thirty-nine points in sixty-eight games. Despite being a fan of Garland myself, I must give the edge in terms of best goal scorer out of the two to Forsberg.
Not only has Forsberg been in the league longer, but he’s scored 30+ goals twice, as well as 21+ goals in six consecutive seasons. He’s ridiculously fast on the ice, can pass much better than Garland, and has the consistency respect. Garland on the other hand is a talented player, but is very streaky and it took Taylor Hall playing on his line to get him above twenty goals. Garland’s more of a complementary piece whereas Forsberg is an established great player in his own right.
A more interesting offensive player to examine for both teams would be both teams’ big offseason acquisitions. For Nashville, we have Matt Duchene and Arizona has Phil Kessel. Both players are stars in their own right, but only Kessel has won Lord Stanley’s Cup.
Duchene tied the best season of his career before signing with Nashville where he played for Ottawa and Columbus, playing in seventy-three games and scoring thirty-one goals and thirty-nine assists for seventy points. In Nashville this season, however, Duchene played in seven fewer games and scored thirteen goals and twenty-nine assists for forty-two points. A significant drop in every offensive category.
Even accounting for the change of scenery and less games played Duchene had a productive, but disappointing season. The same can be said for Phil Kessel. Last season in Pittsburgh, Kessel scored eighty-two points in all eighty-two games, including twenty-seven goals.
This season for Arizona, he played in all seventy games and scored fourteen goals and only recorded twenty-four assists for a paltry thirty-eight points. Duchene suffered a 40% drop in offensive production, but Kessel dropped a massive 54%. A key factor to who will win the series will be which one of these two steps up for their respective teams.
One last offensive comparison is comparing players that are generally seen as disappointments on each team. For the Arizona Coyotes, former Hart Trophy winning forward Taylor Hall, and for Nashville, there’s former Coyotes third overall pick Kyle Turris. Turris struggled early on in Phoenix, but found success in Ottawa.
There, he scored twelve or more goals in six consecutive seasons, including three twenty-four or more goal seasons. Despite finding a scoring touch, Turris has always been a pass first type of player. He’s recorded more assists than goals in all twelve seasons he’s played in the NHL.
He struggled his first full season in Nashville, but did bounce back this season despite a lack of fanfare. He went from seven goals and sixteen assists for twenty-three points in 2018-19 to nine goals and twenty-two assists for thirty-one points this season. He’s still a good player and could provide key depth scoring throughout the series. As for Taylor Hall, he’s played very well in Arizona despite fan dismissal.
In the thirty-five games Hall played for Arizona, Hall scored ten goals and seventeen assists for twenty-seven points. Landing him not far from a point per game, but taking his stats in New Jersey into account, Hall recorded fifty-two points in sixty-five games, making him not only the lone fifty point scorer on the Arizona Coyotes, but the leading point scorer, as well as outscoring Kessel by fourteen points in five fewer games. All of that without taking into account the fact that Hall missed most of the 2018-19 season due to injury and bounced back well this year. Hall was on track to score about sixty points this year. While Turris could be dangerous as a depth piece, Hall is a lethal threat on the first line.
Lastly, the goaltenders need to be compared. Nashville’s Pekka Rinne recorded the worst statistical season of his career. Rinne recorded his first below .900 save percentage as well as his lone 3.00+ goals against average. Age does appear to have caught up to Rinne, but there is hope for Nashville yet. Juuse Saros stepped up in Rinne’s place and recorded a solid season with a record of 17-12-4, a .914 save percentage and 2.70 goals against.
Saros might be the goaltender of the future for Nashville, but how will he play during the playoffs? Despite playing in seven career playoff games, Saros has to be considered a wildcard at best because he’s never started a game, or recorded a single win or loss. He will most likely play well, but it is up in the air.
Arizona on the other hand has depth at the goaltending position, as well as a Stanley Cup winner though that is only technically true. First and foremost, there is the starter who threw Arizona on his back in 2018-19 and almost into the playoffs: Darcy Kuemper. Kuemper has played in more playoff games than Saros, and he’s started in five games with a 3-1 record, a .911 save percentage, a 2.13 goals against and even a shutout.
Kuemper is coming off of back-to-back seasons registering a 2.33 or better goals against, as well as .925 or better save percentage. Kuemper has established himself as a starting goaltender to be taken seriously, though there are unfortunately injury concerns with him. Given the long break, he and Raanta should be fine on that front.
Speaking of Raanta, the man has had one heck of a comeback this season, posting a 15-14-3 record with a 2.63 goals against and .921 save percentage. Seeing a noticeable improvement in both save percentage and goals against average, but the huge boost going to his save percentage, improving from a .906 to the above mentioned .921. Either way, Arizona has a goaltender that could get hot and take them far. Personally, I’d like Kuemper and Raanta to split time during this series, so both are ready if Arizona moves on.
That’s about it; this series is going to be interesting. Nashville has better leadership and a better leading goal scorer, but Arizona has the advantage in goaltending, scoring depth and star player. As stated at the start of this article, this series realistically is Arizona’s to lose.
They are the better overall team and their earlier on ice play backs that up. Arizona will run away with this if they come out of the games aggressive and don’t let up.