It has been quite the interesting start to the season for the Toronto Maple Leafs. Lots of goals, not much defence and suspect goaltending. To date, the Maple Leafs are both the best offensive team and worst defensive team based on goals for and against.
The highest scoring team in the NHL has also given up the most goals. That is the recipe for an exciting season in the provincial capital. Ticket prices are through the roof, the city is abuzz and the parade route is being planned. Let’s do the responsible thing and make some predictions based on a four game sample size.
Primary Scoring
The preseason hype seems to be validated. There will be no lack of offence from the 2018/19 Maple Leafs. After four games, the Leafs have scored 20 goals – which leads the league early on.
If we want to be really irresponsible, we can extrapolate that over 82 games. That is 410 goals on the season. 114 goals more than the 2017/18 league leading Tampa Bay Lightning and a modern day record for team goals scored in a season.
So who will score all these goals? Barring injury, it is clear that Matthews, Marner and Tavares will be the leaders. I believe it is possible that 2 of them score 40+ goals and all 3 have 80+ points.
So far to date, Matthews leads the forwards with 10 points, Marner with 8 and Tavares with 6 goals while he has yet to record an assist.
Predictions:
Auston Matthews: 45 goals, 40 assists – 85 points (photo)
Mitch Marner: 30 goals, 50 assists – 80 points
John Tavares: 40 goals, 53 assists – 93 points
Secondary Scoring
The Maple Leafs first few games of the 2018-19 season have seen very little in the way of secondary scoring. After the big three listed above, there are two forwards with 4 points. With William Nylander not yet under contract, the secondary scoring will be left up to Marleau, Kadri and my favourite of the bunch, Kasperi Kapanen.
Marleau is off to a decent start playing with Matthews. He has 4 points in his first four games. Kadri, however, has had a slow start as the 3rd line center.
His 2 points in four games and a minus 4 (On a team that has scored 20 goals) was not the start of the season he quite had in mind. In order to hoist the Cup, the Leafs will need more production from him on that 3rd line. Kapanen is the dark horse and secret weapon for this team.
He had 0 points playing on the 4th line through the first 2 games. However, once Tyler Ennis was inevitably demoted from the Matthews line and Kapanen promoted, they had instant chemistry. With 9 shots on goal and 4 points in the last 2 games, I think it is safe to say that Kapanen’s position alongside Matthews is safe for now. Nylander will sign, and when he does the Leafs management will have a decision to make. Until then, however, Kapanen has and will continue to turn some heads around the league.
Predictions:
Patrick Marleau: 18 goals, 40 assists – 58 points
Nazem Kadri: 18 goals, 44 assists – 62 points
Kasperi Kapanen: 20 goals, 40 assists – 60 points
Defence:
Morgan Reilly is off to a torrid start to the season. 10 points in 4 games is outrageous, especially for a defensemen who had 52 points in 82 games last year. Regardless, he’s on fire – offensively.
The next highest scoring d-man is Ron Hainsey with 2 points. Don’t expect his half a point per game pace to continue much longer.
The issue with the Maple Leafs D is not their offensive productivity. The team is stocked offensively with arguably the best top-3 lines of any NHL team over the last 20 years. In order to contend for the Cup, the Leafs need to find a way to stop pucks from filling their net.
In addition to being the NHL’s highest scoring team, they also lead the league in goals against with 17 through four games. Nikita Zaitsev and Ron Hainsey are their “shut-down” defensemen. That does’t instill much confidence with Leafs Nation.
Travis Dermott is up with the big club for good it would appear and that is a great start, however, the Maple Leafs need a defensive D-man to patrol the blue line for the long term and grow with this team. I predict a trade.
Prediction: TRADE
Kapanen fills the role as set up guy for Matthews admirably and I suspect can do so for this full season and many more to come. He has been dynamite in his first two games played. Visibly one of the best players on the ice.
This leaves Nylander in limbo. Kapanen makes $863,000 this year. He is only 22 years old. Nylander will make at least $7M once his deal has been finalized. My opinion is they are the same player.
Sign Kapanen to a five-year deal at $3M per year and trade Nylander in exchange for a young D-Man to fill his place. Save $4M per year in desperately needed cap space to sign Marner and Mathews this summer.
Who would fit the bill as a young D-man to mind the Leafs blueline for the next 15 years? Drive East down Hwy 401 and north on Hwy 416 and in less then 4 hours, you will find yourself at the Canadian Tire Center where one Cody Ceci plays for the rival Ottawa Senators.
Ceci was the 15th overall pick in 2012. He is 24-years-old and is now rounding into the defensive stalwart he was expected to be when he was drafted back in 2012. He makes $4.3M per year.
He is the right age, right temperament and most importantly, solid on the blueline. The Leafs were going to need to trade one of Matthews, Marner or Nylander at some point. Might as well cut bait now and get a solid young D-man to fix the current defensive woes.
Goaltending
Yikes. Not a great start for either keeper. Anytime your tandem is leading the league in goals against, you need to find a solution. That solution appears to have been released and picked up by the Carolina Hurricanes. Curtis McElhinney, the Maple Leafs very capable backup last year, was released and claimed on waivers.
He is now stopping everything that comes his way while stealing the starting job in Carolina. Garrett Sparks, who won the job in camp from McElhinney, gave up 6 goals on 25 shots in his season debut. I suspect we will see him stapled to the bench for a couple weeks.
Frederik Anderson is the man in net. If healthy, he will start 65 games this season. The Maple Leafs will need him to stand on his head all season given their glaring weaknesses on the blueline.
He has had health concerns in the past and is certainly at risk of injury – especially with the workload he is expected to carry. Given the shakiness of Sparks in the backup role, I believe we will see a trade for a more capable and experienced backup while Sparks hones his skills for another year with the Marlies.
Either way you slice it, this season will be exciting if you are a Leafs fan. Everybody loves a game with 8 goals and there is little doubt that this Maple Leafs season will have plenty of those games. I will finish this off by giving a few team predictions for the regular season and the playoffs should it come to that.
Total Points – 105
Playoffs: Lose in Eastern Conference Finals to the Carolina Hurricanes
Stanley Cup Champion: Winnipeg Jets
Looking forward to a great season and thanks a lot for reading.